When the trade war between the US and China began, Chilean wines looked with some optimism at the situation. However, over the months it seems that this situation no longer represents an opportunity, at least, for Chilean wine.
Last year, mid-2018, skirmishes began among the world’s largest economies, it was thought that the confrontation could favor the Chilean wine industry, especially export wines and in particular premium wines, after the Asian giant imposed an additional tax of 15% on American wines, in retaliation for US tariffs on steel and aluminum.
Today, with the resurgence of negotiations, this opportunity scenario is no longer such. It is likely that in the short term the fact that the US has trouble selling its wines in China will favor Chile, but in the long term it is complicated, because if a Chinese-American conflict gives a decrease in growth rates, China will it would depress and lower the global consumption from copper to wine.
This is not good, the commercial war generates uncertainty, it can generate changes in the attitudes of the stock exchanges, in the time of change and the uncertainty is not good.
Chile is the fourth largest exporter of wine and its main markets are China, the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom and Brazil, and that is why the trade conflict between the two largest economies in the world is closely followed by the sector.
The first four months of this year there is good news and the curve goes up, but there are 8 months ahead and we have to be very careful.
Wine producers and exporters expect export earnings to grow around 3% this year, while production would fall by 10% compared to 2018.
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